Working Papers

Fields and Foreign Lands: Pre-industrial Climate Risk and International Migration
Co-authors: Miriam Manchin and Elena Nikolova

We study how pre-industrial climate risk during 1500-1800 influenced historical bilateral inward migration and present-day international migration stocks in Europe. We exploit datasets with high resolution (0.25 and 0.5 degree grids). We find that one standard deviation increase in historical precipitation decreases the share of today's migrants in a given location by 0.045 percentage points and also negatively influences historical migration flows. The results only hold in historically rural locations, suggesting that these long-run relationships are driven by agriculture. We also find evidence that historical climate risk had a persistent effect on current migration patterns through differences in historical prosperity.

Work in Progress

How occupational mobility affects internal migration
Co-authors: Mushegh Tovmasyan

Our project aims to study the responses in terms of location mobility and occupational changes in reaction to deindustrialization and increased competition from China in France over the past three decades. By simultaneously examining occupational choices and location choices, and using exposure to international competition, we seek to better understand the connections between the costs of location and occupational mobility faced by some workers. This could provide insights into the debate on low mobility and its consequences for territorial inequalities in the context of evolving globalization patterns.

Determinants and consequences of the decrease in internal migration

The new millennium has witnessed a surge in discontent among residents in stagnant regions, encapsulated by the term "The Geography of Discontent". Despite economic theory positing internal migration as a remedy for regional disparities, developed countries are experiencing a decline in internal migration. Employing a discrete choice model, the study explores the reasons for that decline. More specifically, I examine the case of France from 2012 to 2018. Utilizing census data, this article aims to uncover whether the decrease in internal migration is attributable to the mechanisms identified as affecting internal migration or unobserved factors. In this preliminary model, I find that the decrease in residential mobility is explained by the labor and housing markets.